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Is Favor for Same-Sex Marriage Legalization in Decline?

The United States Supreme Court's June 2015 ruling on the legalization of same-sex marriages, which overruled the historic Baker v. Nelson case and bans implemented by 13 states, was met with controversy the moment it was announced, despite the majority apparently in favor of it. At the time, the 5-to-4 ruling by the presiding justices seemed representative of the estimated 50-60% of Americans in favor of same-sex marriage legalization. Now, according to a recent online poll conducted by the Associated Press, a dramatic change in opinion may have taken place.

The survey – which is reported on by the Associated Press here – was conducted between July 9th and 13th, and used a sample size of just over 1000 adult Americans. According to the extrapolated results, only 39-45% of Americans are now in favor of the ruling that occurred nearly a month ago and about 37-43% are directly against it. The large scale swing in the numbers comes as a surprise to some analysts, who are already looking into what it might imply.

Why the Change and What Does It Affect?

First and foremost, it should be noted that any survey can be misrepresentative of the larger picture. With a population well over 300 million, a poll of only 1,000 could be difficult to expand to that size. However, the AP-GfK Polls of the past do have a strong reputation for being fairly accurate when extrapolated.

Assuming that there are no errors in the data itself, the survey shows a sharp drop in support but no real rise in opposition. This suggests that many people who had originally been in favor of the ruling were metaphorically on the fence about the issue. Once politicians and citizens alike started to raise concerns about violated state and religious rights, a portion of supporters backed away and now consider themselves in a neutral "unsure zone."

Despite the apparent loss of support, the changes to family law brought about the Supreme Court's ruling are not likely to face any immediate or upcoming change. Same-sex couples are still free to marry or divorce in any state. If favor for the ruling does continue to decline, however, alterations could eventually take place, or possibly even a full repeal.

If you are in a same-sex relationship in Connecticut and need help with a legal issue concerning your newfound rights, contact a Fairfield County family law attorney from Bayer & Black, P.C. today.


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